๊ณต์ง€
(์˜ˆ๊ณ ) 7๏ธโƒฃ์›”์˜ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ!

๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ

๐Ÿงฐ ํƒ„์•ฝ๋„, ๊ณต์žฅ๋„, ์ธ๋ ฅ๋„ ์—†๋‹คโ€ฆ 'ํ…… ๋นˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ณ '์˜ ๋ฏผ๋‚ฏ

Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), The Empty Arsenal of Democracy

2025.05.22 | ์กฐํšŒ 123 |
0
|
ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ์˜ ํ”„๋กœํ•„ ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€

ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ

Foreign Affairs ๋ฅผ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์น˜ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ฅผ ํ›‘์–ด๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐ŸŒ ์›น์—์„œ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ๋ฅผ ์„ ํƒํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด
๋” ๊น”๋”ํ•œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ฝ์œผ์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”!

 

[ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ] 5์›” ์…‹์งธ์ฃผ ๋ชฉ์š”์ผ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ

 

The Empty Arsenal of Democracy :

How America Can Build a New Defense Industrial Base

 

Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), The Empty Arsenal of DemocracyIllustration by Lincoln Agnew
Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), The Empty Arsenal of Democracy
Illustration by Lincoln Agnew

 

๐ŸŒ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์ด ์žˆ๋‚˜์š”?

 

๐Ÿ’ธ โ€˜ํ‰ํ™” ๋ฐฐ๋‹น๊ธˆโ€™์ด ๋งŒ๋“  ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ๊ณต๋ฐฑ

๋ƒ‰์ „์ด ๋ง‰์„ ๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋˜ 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ โ€˜์—ญ์‚ฌ์  ์Šน๋ฆฌโ€™์˜ ์—ฌ์œ  ์†์—์„œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋น„๋ฅผ ๊ณผ๊ฐํžˆ ์ค„์ด๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€˜ํ‰ํ™” ๋ฐฐ๋‹น๊ธˆ(peace dividend)โ€™์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ด๋ฆ„ ์•„๋ž˜, ์†Œ๋ จ์˜ ๋ถ•๊ดด๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜จ ์œ„ํ˜‘์˜ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์ง€์ถœ์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ถ•์†Œ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์กŒ๊ณ , ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์‚ฐ์—…์€ ๋Œ€๋Œ€์ ์ธ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์กฐ์ •์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1993๋…„ โ€˜๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋งŒ์ฐฌ(Last Supper)โ€™์ด๋ผ ๋ถˆ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ๊ณ ์œ„ ๊ด€๋ฃŒ๋“ค๊ณผ ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ์—… ๊ฒฝ์˜์ง„ ๊ฐ„์˜ ํšŒ๋™์€ ๊ทธ ์ „ํ™˜์ ์„ ์ƒ์ง•ํ•˜๋Š” ์žฅ๋ฉด์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹คโ€”๋‹น์‹œ 51๊ฐœ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋˜ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์—…์ฒด๋Š” ์ดํ›„ ๋‹จ 5๊ฐœ๋กœ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ง€ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์‚ญ๊ฐ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ๋ ฅ์˜ ๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ํ•ด๊ณ , ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์˜ ํ•ด์ฒด, ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ์ œ์กฐ์—…๊ณผ์˜ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋™์‹œ์— ์ง„ํ–‰๋˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ฐ• ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ์„ ์œ ์ง€ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ โ€˜์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐยท๋ณด๊ธ‰ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅโ€™์„ ์„œ์„œํžˆ ์žƒ์–ด๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์ฃ . ์ด ๋ณ€ํ™”๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฐˆ์ˆ˜๋ก ๋”์šฑ ๋šœ๋ ทํ•ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1985๋…„ 300๋งŒ ๋ช…์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๋˜ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ธ๋ ฅ์€ 2021๋…„์—๋Š” 110๋งŒ ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์ค„์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ฒœ ๊ฐœ์˜ ์ค‘์†Œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์‚ฌ๋ผ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์กŒ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ง์ด ๊ณผ์žฅ์ด ์•„๋‹ ์ •๋„์ธ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿญ ์‹ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜ ๊ฐœํ˜๊ณผ ์ œ์กฐ์—…์˜ ํ•ด์™ธ ์œ ์ถœ

๋ƒ‰์ „ ์ดํ›„ ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์‚ฐ์—… ์‡ ํ‡ด์—๋Š” ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹คโ€”๋ฐ”๋กœ โ€˜์‹ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜โ€™์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์˜๊ตญ์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ํšจ์œจ์„ฑ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ, ์•„์›ƒ์†Œ์‹ฑ์„ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•œ ์‹ ์ž์œ ์ฃผ์˜์  ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ฐœํ˜์€ ๊ตฐ์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ์ค‘ ์ƒ๋‹น ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์— ๋„˜๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒ˜์Œ์—๋Š” ํ–‰์ •ยท๋ฌผ๋ฅ˜ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐ ํšจ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€๊ฐ๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ ์ฐจ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ยท์ œ์กฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋งˆ์ € ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์— ์œ„ํƒ๋˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ตฐ์€ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ์žˆ์–ด์„œ์˜ ํ†ต์ œ๋ ฅ์„ ์ƒ์‹คํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ œ์กฐ์—…์˜ ํƒˆ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ํ™”์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ๋†’์€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋น„์™€ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ฑ ์†์—์„œ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ๋– ๋‚ฌ๊ณ , ์ƒ์—… ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค๋งˆ์ € ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์‚ฌ์—…๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๋งค๊ฐํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ฒ ์ˆ˜ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ์ƒ์—… ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ๋ถ„๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‹ฌํ™”๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ๊ธ‰์†ํžˆ ๋ฐœ์ „ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€๋Š” ๊ทธ ํ๋ฆ„์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์™ธ๊ตญ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜์กด์ด ์‹ฌํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ โ€˜๋ˆ์€ ์žˆ์–ด๋„ ๋ฌผ๊ฑด์ด ์—†๋Š”โ€™ ์ƒํƒœ, ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด ์ด์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ด์•Œ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•œ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ๋Œ€๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ์ „๋ฝํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ ์…ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

โš ๏ธ ์ด์•Œ ์—†๋Š” ์ŠˆํผํŒŒ์›Œ์˜ ๋ถˆํŽธํ•œ ํ˜„์‹ค

๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ง€๊ธˆ ์•„์ฃผ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ํ˜„์žฌ ํฌํƒ„, ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ, ๋ฐฉ๊ณต์ฒด๊ณ„ ๋“ฑ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์žฌ๋ž˜์‹ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ์—์„œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์†๋„๊ฐ€ ์ „์Ÿ ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 2024๋…„ ๊ธฐ์ค€, ์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜ ์ „์Ÿ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ํƒ„์•ฝ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋ช…ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ณด์—ฌ์คฌ๊ณ , ๋ฏธ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€์กฐ์ฐจ โ€œํ˜„์žฌ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์†๋„๋กœ๋Š” ํ‰์‹œ ํ›ˆ๋ จ๋Ÿ‰๋„ ๊ฒจ์šฐ ๋งž์ถœ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ์ธ์ •ํ–ˆ์ฃ . ํ˜„์žฌ์™€ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ฆ์‚ฐ ๊ณ„ํš์„ ๊ฐ€๋™ํ•ด๋„ ํƒ„์•ฝ ์žฌ๊ณ  ํšŒ๋ณต์—๋Š” ์ตœ์†Œ 6๋…„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ์ „๋ง์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์ด, ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋ˆˆ๋ถ€์‹  ์†๋„๋กœ ๋ฐฉ์œ„๋ ฅ์„ ์ฆ๊ฐ•ํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ดˆ์Œ์† ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ, ํ•ญ๊ณต๊ธฐ, ํฌํƒ„, ์ „ํ•จ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋“ฑ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ž๊ธ‰์ž์กฑ์„ ๋„˜์–ด ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€์ƒํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•ต๋ฌด๊ธฐ ๊ฐœ์ˆ˜๋„ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋Š˜๋ ค๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ, ์ „์‹œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ฒด์ œ๋กœ์˜ ์ „ํ™˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์— ์žˆ์–ด, ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” ์ด์ œ ๋” ์ขํ˜€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ“Œ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์ง€์ ์—์„œ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์ ธ์•ผ ํ•  ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด ํ•˜๋‚˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

โ€œ์ „์Ÿ์„ ์ง€์†ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š” ์ŠˆํผํŒŒ์›Œ๋Š” ๊ณผ์—ฐ ์ง„์งœ ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ์ผ๊นŒ์š”?โ€

์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณผ ๊ธ€์€ ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์—์„œ ์ถœ๋ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋น„ ์ด์•ก์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์‚ฐ์—… ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์ „์‹œ ์ง€์† ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ณด๋‹ค ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ค€์—์„œ, ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์•ˆ๋ณด ๊ตฌ์กฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ค ์œ„ํ—˜์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ์ง„๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿซ ์ €์ž๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?

 

๋งˆ์ดํด ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šด (Michael Brown)

๋งˆ์ดํด ๋ธŒ๋ผ์šด์€ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ณผ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณด๋ฅผ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๋žต ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋กœ, ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๊ธฐ์—…๊ณผ ์ •๋ถ€ ์กฐ์ง์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•œ ๋…ํŠนํ•œ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”. ๊ทธ๋Š” 2018๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2022๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ์‚ฐํ•˜ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉํ˜์‹ ๋‹จ(Defense Innovation Unit, DIU)์˜ ๋””๋ ‰ํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋‚ด๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์„ ๊ตฐ์— ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋„์ž…ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•œ ์ธ๋ฌผ๋กœ ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ฐ›์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ์˜ ์žฌ์ž„ ์ค‘ DIU๋Š” ์‹ ๊ทœ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ธฐ์—… 100๊ณณ์„ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€์™€ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ 50๊ฐœ ์ด์ƒ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๊ตฐ์— ๋ฐฐ์น˜๋˜์—ˆ์–ด์š”. ๋˜ํ•œ, ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ์‹ค์ „ ์ ์šฉ ์„ฑ๊ณต๋ฅ ๋„ 50% ์ˆ˜์ค€๊นŒ์ง€ ๋Œ์–ด์˜ฌ๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฏผ๊ตฐ ๊ฒธ์šฉ(dual-use) ํ•˜๋“œ์›จ์–ด ์Šคํƒ€ํŠธ์—…์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ์ž๊ธˆ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ(NSIC)์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํƒˆ์ด ๊บผ๋ คํ•˜๋Š” ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์ „๋žต์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐœ์ž…ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๋งŒ๋“  ์žฅ๋ณธ์ธ์ด์—์š”.

๊ทธ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•ž์„  ์‹œ๊ธฐ์—๋Š” ๋ฐฑ์•…๊ด€ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น ํ˜์‹  ํŽ ๋กœ์šฐ๋กœ ํ™œ๋™ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํˆฌ์ž ์ „๋žต์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ๊ณต๋™ ์ง‘ํ•„ํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ, ์ด ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋Š” ์™ธ๊ตญ์ธ ํˆฌ์ž ์‹ฌ์‚ฌ๋ฒ•(FIRRMA) ์ œ์ •์˜ ๊ณ„๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.

๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹œ๋งŒํ…(Symantec) CEO, ํ€€ํ…€(Quantum) ํšŒ์žฅ, EqualLogic ์˜์žฅ ๋“ฑ์„ ์—ญ์ž„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„๋ณด์•ˆ, ํด๋ผ์šฐ๋“œ, ์ €์žฅ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ์ „ํ™˜์„ ์ฃผ๋„ํ•œ ๊ฒฝํ—˜์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ทธ๋Š” Shield Capital์˜ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ, IST(์•ˆ๋ณด๊ธฐ์ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ)์˜ ์„ ์ž„ ํŽ ๋กœ์šฐ, ์Šคํƒ ํผ๋“œ ํ›„๋ฒ„์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ์˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฌธํ•™์ž ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ํ™œ๋™ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, AI, ์ž์œจ์ฃผํ–‰, ์šฐ์ฃผ, ์‚ฌ์ด๋ฒ„ ๋“ฑ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์•ˆ๋ณด์— ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์ •์ฑ…๊ณผ ์‹œ์žฅ์„ ์•„์šฐ๋ฅด๋Š” ์‹œ๊ฐ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์š”.

 

โœ… ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 3์ค„ ์š”์•ฝ์€?

 

1๏ธโƒฃ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ๋น„ํ•ด ํƒ„์•ฝ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๊ณ , ํ•ด๊ตฐ ํ•จ์ •๊ณผ ๊ณต๊ตฐ ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋…ธํ›„ํ™”๋„ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ํƒ„์•ฝ ์›๋ฃŒ ํ™•๋ณด์—์„œ๋„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์•ฝ์ ์„ ์•ˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

2๏ธโƒฃ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฉ์ฐจ๋Š” ํƒˆ๋ƒ‰์ „ ์ดํ›„ ๊ตฐ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ค„์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ด๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์ด ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ํŽธ์„ฑ๋˜๊ณ  ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•ด ๋ฐฉ์œ„์‚ฐ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ํˆฌ์ž๋‚˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€์— ๋‚˜์„œ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋Š” ์ œ๋„์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์ด๋‹ค.

3๏ธโƒฃ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ๋Œ€ํญ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๊ณ , ๋‹ค๋…„ ๊ณ„์•ฝ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•ด ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ๊ณผ ์œ ์—ฐ์„ฑ์„ ํšŒ๋ณตํ•ด์•ผ ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์  ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๊ณผ ์ž ์žฌ์  ์ „๋ฉด์ „์— ๋Œ€๋น„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿค” ๋ญ˜ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฑด๋ฐ?

 

๐Ÿงจ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ „์Ÿ์„ โ€˜์ด๊ธธ ์ค€๋น„โ€™๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, โ€˜๋ฒ„ํ‹ธ ์ค€๋น„โ€™๊ฐ€ ์•ˆ ๋ผ ์žˆ๋‹ค

์ด ๊ธ€์€ ์„ฌ๋œฉํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ •์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€œ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋Œ€๋งŒ์„ ์นจ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ณผ์—ฐ ๋ฒ„ํ…จ๋‚ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ?โ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ •๊ตํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ™๋ จ๋œ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–์ท„์ง€๋งŒ, ์‹ค์ œ ๊ณ ๊ฐ•๋„ ์ „๋ฉด์ „์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๋ฉด ๋ช‡ ์ฃผ ๋งŒ์— ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ๋‚  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์ €์ž์˜ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ, ๋“œ๋ก , ํ•จ์ •, ํ•ญ๊ณต๊ธฐ ๋ชจ๋‘ โ€˜๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ๋›ฐ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€๋งŒ ์–‘์ด ํ„ฑ์—†์ด ๋ถ€์กฑโ€™ํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ , ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ์—ญ์‹œ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ ๋…„์˜ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์ถ•์†Œ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ํšŒ๋ณตํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ•ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋ ฅ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .

์ฆ‰, ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ง€์† ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐํฌ๋ผ์ด๋‚˜ ์ „์Ÿ์—์„œ ํ™•์ธ๋œ ๋ฐ”์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด, ํ˜„๋Œ€์ „์€ ๋‹จ๊ธฐ ๊ฒฐ์ „์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์†Œ๋ชจ์ „์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝํ–ฅ์ด ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋•Œ ๊ฒฐ์ •์  ์—ญํ• ์„ ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ฒจ๋‹จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์‚ฐ์—…์  ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ง€๋‚œ ์ˆ˜์‹ญ ๋…„๊ฐ„ โ€˜์†์ „์†๊ฒฐโ€™์„ ์ „์ œ๋กœ ํ•œ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์ „๋žต์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ์ „์‹œ ์‚ฐ์—…๊ณผ ๋ณ‘์ฐธ ์ธํ”„๋ผ๋ฅผ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์•ฝํ™”์‹œ์ผœ ์˜จ ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .

 

๐Ÿญ โ€˜๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜์˜ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ณ โ€™๋Š” ์™œ ํ…… ๋น„์—ˆ๋‚˜?

๊ธ€์“ด์ด๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜์‚ฐ์—… ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ์ทจ์•ฝํ•ด์ง„ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์œผ๋กœ ๋ƒ‰์ „ ์ข…์‹ ์ดํ›„์˜ ์ฐฉ๊ฐ๊ณผ ๋ฐฉ๋งŒํ•œ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ์ง€์ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1990๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ, ๋ƒ‰์ „์ด ๋๋‚˜์ž ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ 3๋ถ„์˜ 1 ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์ด ์ค„์˜€๊ณ , โ€™๋Œ€๋Ÿ‰ ์ƒ์‚ฐโ€™๋ณด๋‹ค๋Š” โ€˜์ •๋ฐ€ ํƒ€๊ฒฉโ€™๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ˜์‹ ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์‹œ์„ค์„ ์ค„์ด๊ณ , โ€œ์ตœ์†Œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ, ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ตœ์†Œํ™”, ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐโ€ ์ „๋žต์„ ์ฑ„ํƒํ–ˆ์ฃ . ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ „์—์„œ ์ด๊ธฐ๊ธฐ์—” ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ „ ๋Œ€๋น„๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ์ด๋ฃจ์–ด์ง€์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ, ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์ฒด๊ณ„ ์ „๋ฐ˜์—์„œ ์žฌ๊ณ ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๊ณ , ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋„ ํ˜„์ €ํžˆ ๋–จ์–ด์ ธ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ŠคํŒ…์–ด ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ์€ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ด 20๋…„ ์ „์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ด๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„  ํ‡ด์ง ์—”์ง€๋‹ˆ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ถˆ๋Ÿฌ์•ผ ํ•  ์ •๋„์ฃ . ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ, ํ•ญ๊ณต๋ชจํ•จ, ๋“œ๋ก  ๋ชจ๋‘ ์˜ค๋ž˜๋œ ์„ค๊ณ„์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ํญ์ฆํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋Œ€์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋ถ€ํ’ˆยท๊ธฐ์ˆ ยท๊ณต์žฅยท๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜๊ณ  ๋‚˜์„œ ์ฆ์‚ฐํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์ตœ์†Œ 2~3๋…„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์—์„œ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ „์Ÿ ์ „์˜ ์ค€๋น„ ํƒœ์„ธ์—์„œ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์…ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ“‰ โ€™์–‘โ€™๋„ ์—†๊ณ  โ€™์†๋„โ€™๋„ ์—†๋‹ค

๋” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ์ง€๋‚˜์น˜๊ฒŒ ๋А๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋น„ํšจ์œจ์ ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์€ ๋ณต์žกํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ด€๋ฃŒ์ ์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ฒฐ์ •์ด ๋А๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ฑ…์ž„ ํšŒํ”ผ์„ฑ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋กœ ์šด์˜๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ๋งค๋…„ ๋‹จ์ ˆ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ง‘ํ–‰๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๊ตฐ์€ ๊ธด๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ธฐ์—…์—์„œ ์กฐ๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ์–ด๋ ต๊ณ , ์ƒ์—… ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ์ง„๋ณด ์†๋„๋ฅผ ๋”ฐ๋ผ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜์ฃ . ํ•œ ๋ฒˆ ๊ณ„์•ฝํ•˜๋ฉด 10๋…„ ๋„˜๊ฒŒ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค์•ผ ์ œํ’ˆ์ด ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ํ˜„์‹ค์—์„œ, ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ์•„์ดํฐ์ด ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ง„ํ™”ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑด ์ „ํ˜€ ๋†€๋ž์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋˜ํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ธฐ์—…์€ ์ ์  ๋” ์†Œ์ˆ˜ ๋Œ€๊ธฐ์—… ์ค‘์‹ฌ์œผ๋กœ ์žฌํŽธ๋˜์–ด, 5๊ฐœ ์—…์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์ „์ฒด ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์˜ 70% ์ด์ƒ์„ ๋…์ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋‹ค์–‘์„ฑ์ด ์‚ฌ๋ผ์ง„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง, ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ ์—†๋Š” ์‹œ์žฅ, ๋А๋ฆฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ์˜ ์ง„์ •ํ•œ ์ทจ์•ฝ์ ์ด ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„์šฉ์€ ์˜ค๋ฅด๋Š”๋ฐ ํ˜์‹ ์€ ์ค„๊ณ , ์ƒ์‚ฐ์€ ๋А๋ ค์ง€๊ณ , ๋‚ฉํ’ˆ ๊ธฐํ•œ์€ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์•…์ˆœํ™˜์ด ์ง€์†๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ .

 

โš™๏ธ ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ ๋ญ˜ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•˜์ง€?

์ €์ž๋Š” ํ•ด๊ฒฐ์ฑ…๋„ ์ œ์‹œํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•ต์‹ฌ์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋‹น์žฅ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ๋กœ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜์‚ฐ์—… ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์งœ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์šฐ์„  ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ž์ฒด๋ฅผ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ ์ด์ƒ ๋Š˜๋ ค์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ , ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ง‘ํ–‰๋„ ๋งค๋…„์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋‹ค๋…„ ๊ณ„์•ฝ(multiyear contracts)์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์ด ์•ˆ์ •์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ธ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ณ ์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ณต์žฅ์„ ํ™•์žฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋ผ์ธ์„ ์žฌ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์œ ๋„ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ . ๋™์‹œ์— ๋“œ๋ก , AI, ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด ๋“ฑ ์‹ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๋ฒค์ฒ˜ ์ƒํƒœ๊ณ„๋„ ์ ๊ทน ์œก์„ฑํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋˜ํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค๊ณผ์˜ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ์—ฐ๊ณ„, ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์ž์œ ํ™”, โ€˜Buy Americanโ€™ ๊ทœ์ œ ์™„ํ™” ๋“ฑ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋ณด๋‹ค ์œ ์—ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๋ ฅ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•  ํ•„์š”๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€์˜ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ฐœํ˜์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๊ทœ์ •๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ฃŒ์ฃผ์˜์— ๊ฐ‡ํžŒ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋กœ๋Š” โ€˜์†๋„์™€ ์œ ์—ฐ์„ฑโ€™์ด ์š”๊ตฌ๋˜๋Š” ํ˜„๋Œ€์ „์— ๋Œ€์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ . ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์˜ ํ˜์‹  ์†๋„์™€ ๊ตฐ์˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ด ๋งŒ๋‚˜๋Š” ์ ‘์ ์„ ์žฌ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ด ์ด ๊ธ€์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ์ œ์•ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ’ฅ ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜๊ธฐ ์ „์— ์ค€๋น„ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค

์ด ๊ธ€์ด ๊ถ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋Š” ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „์Ÿ ์–ต์ œ๋ ฅ์€ โ€˜๋ฌด๊ธฐโ€™์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, โ€˜์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฏฟ์Œโ€™์—์„œ ๋‚˜์˜จ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด๋‚˜ ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ์ „์Ÿ์„ ๋ง์„ค์ด๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฑด ๋‹จ์ง€ ํ•ต๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ฉฐ, ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ์ „๋ฉด์ „์„ ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์‚ฐ์—… ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ . ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ํ…… ๋นˆ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๊ณ ๋Š”, ๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ์˜์‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €์ž๊ฐ€ ๋‚จ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ๋Š” ์ด๋ ‡์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€œ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ „์Ÿ์—์„œ ์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ „์Ÿ์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋˜๊ธฐ ์ „๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹๊นŒ์š”?โ€ ์ „์Ÿ์€ ์–ธ์ œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฅด์ง€๋งŒ, ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ ฅ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ค€๋น„ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ™•๋ณดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ ํ–‰๋™ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์œผ๋ฉด, ๋‚˜์ค‘์—” ์•„๋ฌด๋ฆฌ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ์›ํ•ด๋„ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋Šฆ์€ ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์ด ์ฐพ์•„์˜ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํ”ํ•œ ์‹คํŒจ์˜ ์›์ธ์€ ๋‘ ๋‹จ์–ด๋กœ ์š”์•ฝ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ”๋กœ โ€œToo late!โ€ โฐ

 

๐Ÿ“– ์ฝ์€ ํ‹ฐ๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ณด์ž!

์•„์˜ˆ ์•ˆ ์ฝ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์• ๋งคํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”? ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ค‘์š” ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐœ์ทŒํ•ด ๋“œ๋ฆด๊ฒŒ์š”! ๐Ÿ˜†

 

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๋ฏธ๊ตฐ, ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ธด ํ•œ๋ฐโ€ฆ ์ง„์งœ ์‹ธ์šธ ์ค€๋น„๋Š” ์•ˆ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค

 

โ€œThe U.S. military is arguably the most powerful in the world. But it is not ready for such a conflict. Its weapons are sophisticated. Its soldiers are second to none. Yet the United States has low stockpiles of munitions, its ships and planes are older than Chinaโ€™s, and its industrial base lacks the capacity to regenerate these assets. The U.S. supply of precisionโ€‘strike missiles, for example, would last no more than a few weeks in a highโ€‘intensity conflict and would take years to replace. In war games that simulate a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Washington runs out of key munitions within weeks.โ€


 

๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ฐ›์ง€๋งŒ, ์‹ค์ œ ์ „์Ÿ์— ๋Œ€๋น„๋Š” ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค. ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋Š” ์ •๊ตํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ณ‘์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์ตœ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ํƒ„์•ฝ ๋น„์ถ•๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋‚ฎ๊ณ , ํ•ด๊ตฐ ํ•จ์ •๊ณผ ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ๋“ค์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ์˜ค๋ž˜๋˜์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์ด๋ฅผ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์‚ฐ์—… ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜๋„ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ์ •๋ฐ€ํƒ€๊ฒฉ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ๊ณ ๊ฐ•๋„ ์ „ํˆฌ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ช‡ ์ฃผ๋ฐ–์— ๋ฒ„ํ‹ฐ์ง€ ๋ชปํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์žฌ์ƒ์‚ฐ์—๋Š” ์ˆ˜๋…„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆด ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋งŒํ•ดํ˜‘์—์„œ์˜ ๋ถ„์Ÿ์„ ๊ฐ€์ •ํ•œ ์›Œ๊ฒŒ์ž„์—์„œ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๋ช‡ ์ฃผ ๋งŒ์— ์ฃผ์š” ํƒ„์•ฝ์„ ์†Œ์ง„ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋œ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ’ฃ โ€˜ํ™”์•ฝ์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌโ€™๋„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ์˜์กดโ€ฆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜์˜ ์•ฝํ•œ ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ

 

โ€œWashingtonโ€™s needs are particularly acute when it comes to the chemicals used in propellants and explosives, known as โ€˜energetics.โ€™ Investments in these substances and the productive capacity to make them have been especially low; the two energetics most widely used by the United States are chemical compounds from World Warโ€ฏII, typically made in government factories from that era. Meanwhile, China and Russia have been aggressively funding more sophisticated energetics programs, leveraging U.S. research. Alarmingly, the United States relies on foreign countries, including China, for about oneโ€‘third of the raw materials it uses in energetics production.โ€


 

์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด์ด ํŠนํžˆ ์‹œ๊ธ‰ํžˆ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•ด์•ผ ํ•  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ์ถ”์ง„์ฒด์™€ ํญ์•ฝ์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜๋Š” ํ™”ํ•™๋ฌผ์งˆ, ์ด๋ฅธ๋ฐ” โ€˜์—๋„ˆ์ œํ‹ฑ์Šค(energetics)โ€™๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž์™€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ๋‚ฎ์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์— ๋จธ๋ฌผ๋Ÿฌ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋„๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋‘ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์—๋„ˆ์ œํ‹ฑ์Šค ํ™”ํ•ฉ๋ฌผ์€ 2์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Œ€์ „ ๋‹น์‹œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค๋กœ, ๋‹น์‹œ์˜ ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ณต์žฅ์—์„œ ์ฃผ๋กœ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋˜๋˜ ๋ฌผ์งˆ๋“ค์ด๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋Ÿฌ์‹œ์•„๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์„ฑ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ •๊ตํ•œ ์—๋„ˆ์ œํ‹ฑ์Šค ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ์— ๊ณต๊ฒฉ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž๊ธˆ์„ ํˆฌ์ž…ํ•ด์™”๋‹ค. ๋” ์šฐ๋ ค์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ์ ์€, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ด๋“ค ์—๋„ˆ์ œํ‹ฑ์Šค ์ƒ์‚ฐ์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์›์ž์žฌ์˜ ์•ฝ 3๋ถ„์˜ 1์„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์™ธ๊ตญ์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด๋‹ค.

 

โ˜„๏ธ ๋ƒ‰์ „ ๋๋‚˜๊ณ  ํƒ„์•ฝ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ค„์ธ ๋Œ€๊ฐ€, ์ง€๊ธˆ ์น˜๋ฅด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค

 

โ€œFromโ€ฏ1989 toโ€ฏ1999, the United States cut its defense budget by nearly a third. The Cold War was over, so U.S. officials no longer saw the need for an enormous military. Congress continued to spend on major defense platforms, such as the Fโ€‘22 aircraft and Nimitzโ€‘class aircraft carriers. But it drastically reduced the budget for munitions and smaller weapons. The defense industrial base consolidated, and its investment in capacity and workforce declined. Suppliers focused on minimum rates of production, justโ€‘inโ€‘time inventory management, and cost reductions.โ€

 

1989๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 1999๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ 3๋ถ„์˜ 1๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ์‚ญ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ƒ‰์ „์ด ๋๋‚ฌ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์— ๋ฏธ ๋‹น๊ตญ์€ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์„ ๋А๋ผ์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ์˜ํšŒ๋Š” F-22 ์ „ํˆฌ๊ธฐ์™€ ๋‹ˆ๋ฏธ์ธ ๊ธ‰ ํ•ญ๊ณต๋ชจํ•จ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ฃผ์š” ๋ฐฉ์œ„ ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์—๋Š” ์ง€์ถœ์„ ๊ณ„์†ํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ํƒ„์•ฝ๊ณผ ์†Œํ˜• ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ๋Œ€ํญ ์‚ญ๊ฐํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์‚ฐ์—… ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์€ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ๊ฐ์†Œํ–ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณต๊ธ‰์—…์ฒด๋“ค์€ ์ตœ์†Œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋Ÿ‰ ์œ ์ง€, ์žฌ๊ณ  ์ตœ์†Œํ™” ๋ฐฉ์‹, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋น„์šฉ ์ ˆ๊ฐ์— ์ง‘์ค‘ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ”ญ ๋‹จ๋ฐœ์„ฑ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์œผ๋ก  ๋ชป ๋ฒ„ํ‹ด๋‹คโ€ฆ โ€˜์žฅ๊ธฐ์ โ€™์œผ๋กœ ๊ฐ€์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค

 

โ€œInstead, Congress should pass multiyear appropriations for military purchases and create a consistently funded defense modernization plan, one that includes a munitions buildup. Doing so would give the Pentagon greater flexibility and leeway to spend as it sees fit. It would also show defense manufacturers that there will be longโ€‘term demand, incentivizing them to make bigger investments in production by hiring and training workers, building and expanding factories, and establishing more resilient supply chains. Inโ€ฏ2H2N, Congress took a small step in this direction by approving multiyear purchases for six critical munitions. But to really show suppliers that the military needs increased quantities and the ability to surge production, all military goods should be given multiyear contracts, not just half a dozen missile types.โ€

 

์˜ํšŒ๋Š” ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ๋‹ค๋…„๋„ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์„ ์Šน์ธํ•˜๊ณ , ํƒ„์•ฝ ํ™•์ถฉ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ํ˜„๋Œ€ํ™” ๊ณ„ํš์„ ์ˆ˜๋ฆฝํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€๋Š” ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ง‘ํ–‰์— ์žˆ์–ด ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์žฌ๋Ÿ‰๊ณผ ์œ ์—ฐ์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ€์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋™์‹œ์— ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐ ์—…์ฒด๋“ค์— ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ์ˆ˜์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์‹ ํ˜ธ๋ฅผ ์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด, ์ด๋“ค์ด ์ƒ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ธ๋ ฅ ์ฑ„์šฉ๊ณผ ํ›ˆ๋ จ, ๊ณต์žฅ ๊ฑด์„ค ๋ฐ ํ™•์žฅ, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง ๊ฐ•ํ™”์— ๋” ์ ๊ทน์ ์œผ๋กœ ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋„๋ก ์œ ๋„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. 2023๋…„, ์˜ํšŒ๋Š” ์—ฌ์„ฏ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ฃผ์š” ํƒ„์•ฝ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ค๋…„๋„ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋ฅผ ์Šน์ธํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ž‘์€ ๋ฐœ๊ฑธ์Œ์„ ๋‚ด๋””๋Ž ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ตฐ์ด ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰ ํ™•๋Œ€์™€ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋ ฅ ์ฆ๊ฐ•์„ ์ง„์ง€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ „๋‹ฌํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด, ๋‹จ ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์ข…๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ตฐ์ˆ˜ํ’ˆ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ค๋…„๋„ ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ด ์ ์šฉ๋˜์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿคจ ์ด๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฏฟ์–ด๋„ ๋ ๊นŒ?

 

1๏ธโƒฃ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€, ๊ฑฐ์‹œ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฐ€?

๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€์™€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํˆฌ์ž ํ•„์š”์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๊ทธ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ๊ฑฐ์‹œ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋ถ€๋‹ด์€ ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฃจ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ํ•„์—ฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์„ธ์ˆ˜ ํ™•์ถฉ, ๊ธˆ๋ฆฌ ์ธ์ƒ, ๊ตญ์ฑ„ ๋ฐœํ–‰ ํ™•๋Œ€ ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ์œ„์ถ•์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์ถ• ํšจ๊ณผ(crowding-out) ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ์ œ๊ธฐ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋”์šฑ์ด โ€œ์„ธ๊ธˆ ์ธ์ƒ๊ณผ ์ง€์ถœ ์‚ญ๊ฐโ€์ด๋ผ๋Š” ์ „ํ†ต์ ์ธ ์žฌ์› ๋งˆ๋ จ ๋ฐฉ์‹์€, ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์‚ฌํšŒ์˜ ์ •์น˜ ์–‘๊ทนํ™”์™€ ์žฌ์ • ๊ฑด์ „์„ฑ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ด ๊ฒฉํ™”๋œ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ๋Š” ์‹คํ˜„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ํฌ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „๋žต์  ์šฐ์„ ์ˆœ์œ„ ์„ค์ • ์—†์ด ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ํ™•๋Œ€๋งŒ์„ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ์ ‘๊ทผ์€ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ ๋ฉด์—์„œ ์„ค๋“๋ ฅ์ด ๋–จ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹๊นŒ์š”?

 

2๏ธโƒฃ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์œ„๊ธฐ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹๊นŒ?

๋Œ€๋งŒํ•ดํ˜‘ ์–ต์ง€๋ฅผ ๋…ผํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ ์ฆ๊ฐ•์„ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์ถ•์œผ๋กœ ์‚ผ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์‹ค์งˆ์ ์ธ ์ถฉ๋Œ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ์—๋Š” ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌ์  ํž˜๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์œ„๊ธฐ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ๋ฉ”์ปค๋‹ˆ์ฆ˜๊ณผ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๊ตฌ์ถ• ์กฐ์น˜(CBMs) ๊ฐ™์€ โ€˜๊ตฐ์ถ• ์˜ต์…˜โ€™์ด ํ•„์ˆ˜์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๋ƒ‰์ „ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์˜ ๋ฏธยท์†Œ ๊ฐ„ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ํ•ซ๋ผ์ธ, ๋น„์ƒ์‹œ ํ†ต์‹  ์ฒด๊ณ„, ์ƒํ˜ธํ†ต์ง€ ํ˜‘์•ฝ ๋“ฑ์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์ถฉ๋Œ์„ ์–ต์ œํ•˜๋Š” ์—ญํ• ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์–‘์ธก์ด ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์  ๋Œ€์‘๋งŒ์„ ๊ฐ•ํ™”ํ•  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์•ˆ๋ณด ๋”œ๋ ˆ๋งˆ๊ฐ€ ์‹ฌํ™”๋ผ ์ƒ๋Œ€์˜ ์œ„ํ˜‘ ์ธ์‹์„ ์ž๊ทนํ•˜๊ณ , ๋ถˆํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ถฉ๋Œ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์ปค์งˆ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€˜๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์–ต์ง€โ€™๊ฐ€ ๊ณง โ€˜์•ˆ์ „ํ•œ ์–ต์ง€โ€™๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ์ „์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์œ ํšจํ•œ์ง€ ๋‹ค์‹œ ์งˆ๋ฌธํ•ด๋ณผ ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

3๏ธโƒฃ ์ดํ•ด๊ด€๊ณ„์ž์˜ ์ •์ฑ… ์ œ์–ธ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๋ฐ›์•„๋“ค์—ฌ์•ผ ํ• ๊นŒ?

์ €์ž๋Š” ๋ฏธ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉํ˜์‹ ๋‹จ(DIU)์˜ ์ „์ง ๊ตญ์žฅ์ด์ž, ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‚ฐยท์ฒจ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋ถ„์•ผ์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฒค์ฒ˜์บํ”ผํ„ธ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ๋กœ ํ™œ๋™ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, ๋ฐฉ์œ„์‚ฐ์—… ํ™•๋Œ€์™€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์‹คํ™”๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ง์ ‘์  ์ด์ต์„ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์œ„์น˜์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์ธ๋ฌผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฌผ๋ก  ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์ด ๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ์ •์ฑ… ์ œ์–ธ์˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ์„ ํ›ผ์†ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ์ œ์‹œํ•˜๋Š” โ€˜์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ์ฆ์•กโ€™, โ€˜์‹œ์žฅ ํ™•๋Œ€โ€™, โ€˜๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ค‘์‹ฌ ์ „๋žต ์ „ํ™˜โ€™์ด ์ดํ•ด๊ด€๊ณ„์™€ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ๋ฌด๊ด€ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋„ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์„ ๊ฐ์•ˆํ•˜์—ฌ ์ œ์•ˆ์˜ ์ทจ์ง€์™€ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ฑ์„ ๋น„ํŒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ฒ€ํ† ํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์ง€ ์•Š์„๊นŒ์š”?

 

๐Ÿ˜Š ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ฝ์œผ๋ฉด ์ข‹๊ฒ ๋‹ค!

 

Pentagonโ€™s Hegseth sees growth in defense spending despite Musk review (Reuters, Feb 12, 2025)

๋ฏธ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์žฅ๊ด€ ํ”ผํŠธ ํ—ฅ์„ธ์Šค๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ผ๋ก  ๋จธ์Šคํฌ์˜ ๊ฐ์ฐฐ์ด ์ง„ํ–‰ ์ค‘์ž„์—๋„ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋น„ ์ฆ์•ก์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฒซ ํ•ด์™ธ ์ˆœ๋ฐฉ์ง€์ธ ๋…์ผ์—์„œ ํ—ฅ์„ธ์Šค ์žฅ๊ด€์€ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ์™€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋…ผ์˜ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€์˜ ๋น„ํšจ์œจ๊ณผ ๋‚ญ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ค„์ด๋Š” ๋…ธ๋ ฅ์€ ์ง€์ง€ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ž‘์ „ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ ํ›ผ์†ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์กฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ ๋จธ์Šคํฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ๊ฐ์‚ฌ(DOGE)๋ฅผ ๋งก๊ธฐ๋ฉฐ ์ˆ˜์ฒœ์–ต ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์˜ ๋‚ญ๋น„๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์•„๋‚ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ฃผ๋ฌธํ•œ ์ƒํƒœ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋จธ์Šคํฌ์˜ ์ŠคํŽ˜์ด์ŠคX ๋“ฑ์€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ณ„์•ฝ์ž๋กœ, ์ดํ•ด ์ถฉ๋Œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋„ ์ œ๊ธฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฏผ์ฃผ๋‹น๊ณผ ๊ณต๊ณต๋…ธ์กฐ๋Š” ๋จธ์Šคํฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ฐœํ˜์— ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ „๋ฌธ์„ฑ์ด ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋น„ํŒํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ํ—ฅ์„ธ์Šค๋Š” โ€œ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ถ€๋Š” ๋ฏธ ๊ตญ์ œ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ฒ˜(USAID)๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹คโ€๋ผ๋ฉฐ, ๋จธ์Šคํฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ธฐํ›„๋ณ€ํ™” ๊ด€๋ จ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ ๋“ฑ์„ ์ •๋ฆฌํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์„ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ์ตœ์†Œ GDP์˜ 3% ์ด์ƒ์ด์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ฃผ์žฅํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€๋Š” โ€˜๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๊ตฐ๋Œ€ ์žฌ๊ฑดโ€™์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ํˆฌ์ž ํ™•๋Œ€์— ๋‚˜์„ค ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ฐํ˜”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ์˜ˆ์‚ฐ์€ ์—ฐ 1์กฐ ๋‹ฌ๋Ÿฌ์— ๊ทผ์ ‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ—ฅ์„ธ์Šค๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ด๋“  ์‹œ์ ˆ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๋ ฅ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋ถ€์กฑํ–ˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๐Ÿ’ฐ๐Ÿ›ฐ๏ธ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

 

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (CSIS, Jan 9, 2023)

๋ฏธ ์ „๋žต๊ตญ์ œ๋ฌธ์ œ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์†Œ(CSIS)๋Š” โ€˜์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€๋งŒ ์นจ๊ณตโ€™์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ƒ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”ํƒ•์œผ๋กœ 24์ฐจ๋ก€์˜ ์›Œ๊ฒŒ์ž„์„ ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•œ ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋ฅผ ๋ฐœํ‘œํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค์—์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ๋Œ€๋งŒ, ์ผ๋ณธ์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์นจ๊ณต์„ ์ €์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ ๋Œ€๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ง‰๋Œ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ ํ•ญ๊ณต๋ชจํ•จ 2์ฒ™์ด ๊ฒฉ์นจ๋˜๊ณ , ์ˆ˜๋ฐฑ ๋Œ€์˜ ํ•ญ๊ณต๊ธฐ์™€ ์ˆ˜๋งŒ ๋ช…์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตฐ์ด ํฌ์ƒ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋„์ถœ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋Œ€๋งŒ์€ ๋ฐฉ์–ด์— ์„ฑ๊ณตํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์‹œ์„ค์ด ์ดˆํ† ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ถ•๊ดด๋˜๋ฉฐ, ์ค‘๊ตญ๋„ ํ•ด๊ตฐ๋ ฅ์˜ ๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ์ƒ์‹คํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์ €์ง€ํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์‚ฌ์ „ ์ค€๋น„๊ฐ€ ํ•„์ˆ˜๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ ๋Œ€๋งŒ์€ ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ์ €ํ•ญ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ  ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ผ๋ณธ ๊ธฐ์ง€๋ฅผ ํ™œ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์•ผ ํ•˜๊ณ , ์žฅ๊ฑฐ๋ฆฌ ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผยทํ•ญ๊ณต๊ธฐ ๋“ฑ ๋น„๋Œ€์นญ ์ „๋ ฅ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์„ ์ง€์ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์Šน๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, โ€˜๊ฐ’๋น„์‹ผ ์Šน๋ฆฌโ€™๊ฐ€ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋‹ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๐ŸŽฏ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ

 

์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ์ „๋žต๊ณผ ๋ฐฉ์œ„์‚ฐ์—…์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฃฌ Foreign Affairs 2025 May/Jun ํ˜ธ์˜ The Empty Arsenal of Democracy ๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๋‹ค์Œํ™” ์˜ˆ๊ณ 

๐Ÿ“‰ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ํ”๋“ค๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๊ณ ? ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ธˆ๋ฌผ!

 

์ฒจ๋ถ€ ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€

๐Ÿ‰ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜์ง€ ๋งˆ๋ผ! ์Šน๋ถ€๋Š” โ€˜๊ทœ๋ชจโ€™์—์„œ ๊ฐˆ๋ฆฐ๋‹ค โš–๏ธ

๋™๋งน๊ณผ์˜ ์—ฐํ•ฉ๋งŒ์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๋ง‰์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•ด๋‹ต์ด๋‹ค! ๐Ÿ’ช

 

5์›” ๋„ท์งธ์ฃผ ํ™”์š”์ผ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ๋Š” ๋ฉˆ์ถ”์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๋‚ด์šฉ์ด ๋” ์žˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด ์–ธ์ œ๋“ ์ง€ ์ €์ž์—๊ฒŒ ์•Œ๋ ค์ฃผ์„ธ์š”!

๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ฌ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?

์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ตฌ๋…ํ•ด์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ ˆํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„๋ณด์„ธ์š”

โœ‰๏ธ

์ด๋ฒˆ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ์–ด๋– ์…จ๋‚˜์š”?

ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ ๋‹˜์—๊ฒŒ โ˜•๏ธ ์ปคํ”ผ์™€ โœ‰๏ธ ์ชฝ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋‚ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”!

๋Œ“๊ธ€

์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋‚จ๊ฒจ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”

ํ™•์ธ
์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ์žˆ์œผ์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”? ์ œ์ผ ๋จผ์ € ๋Œ“๊ธ€์„ ๋‹ฌ์•„๋ณด์„ธ์š” !

๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ

ยฉ 2025 ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ

Foreign Affairs ๋ฅผ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์น˜ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ฅผ ํ›‘์–ด๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฉ”์ผ๋ฆฌ ๋กœ๊ณ 

๋„์›€๋ง ์ž์ฃผ ๋ฌป๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ œ๋ณด ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ๊ด‘๊ณ  ๋ฌธ์˜

์„œ๋น„์Šค ์ด์šฉ ๋ฌธ์˜admin@team.maily.so

๋ฉ”์ผ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์—…์ž ์ •๋ณด

๋ฉ”์ผ๋ฆฌ (๋Œ€ํ‘œ์ž: ์ดํ•œ๊ฒฐ) | ์‚ฌ์—…์ž๋ฒˆํ˜ธ: 717-47-00705 | ์„œ์šธ ์„œ์ดˆ๊ตฌ ๊ฐ•๋‚จ๋Œ€๋กœ53๊ธธ 8, 8์ธต 11-7ํ˜ธ

์ด์šฉ์•ฝ๊ด€ | ๊ฐœ์ธ์ •๋ณด์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋ฐฉ์นจ | ์ •๊ธฐ๊ฒฐ์ œ ์ด์šฉ์•ฝ๊ด€ | ๋ผ์ด์„ ์Šค