๊ณต์ง€
(๊ณต์ง€) ์—ฐ์žฌ๋ฅผ ์ค‘๋‹จํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ

๐Ÿ“‰ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ํ”๋“ค๋ฆฐ๋‹ค๊ณ ? ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ธˆ๋ฌผ!

Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), Underestimating China

2025.05.27 | ์กฐํšŒ 242 |
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ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ์˜ ํ”„๋กœํ•„ ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€

ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ

Foreign Affairs ๋ฅผ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์น˜ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ฅผ ํ›‘์–ด๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๐ŸŒ ์›น์—์„œ ๋ณด๊ธฐ ๋ฅผ ์„ ํƒํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด
๋” ๊น”๋”ํ•œ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ์ฝ์œผ์‹ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์–ด์š”!

 

[ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ] 5์›” ๋„ท์งธ์ฃผ ํ™”์š”์ผ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ

 

 Underestimating China :

Why America Needs a New Strategy of Allied Scale to Offset Beijingโ€™s Enduring Advantages

 

Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), Underestimating ChinaIllustration by Tyler Comrie
Foreign Affairs (2025 May/Jun), Underestimating China
Illustration by Tyler Comrie

 

๐ŸŒ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ์ด ์žˆ๋‚˜์š”?

 

๐Ÿง  โ€œ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ณง ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์งˆ ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹คโ€โ€”๋ฐ˜๋ณต๋˜๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ

์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์‚ฌ์ด, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์•ˆํŒŽ์—์„œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋‚™๊ด€์  ์ „๋ง์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ๊ณ ๊ฐœ๋ฅผ ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ  ๋‘”ํ™”, ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ๋ฒ„๋ธ”, ์ฒญ๋…„ ์‹ค์—…โ€ฆ โ€œ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ •์ ์„ ์ง€๋‚ฌ๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์žก์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒโ€์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋ฏฟ์Œ์ด ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๋Š” ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ์ฃ . ํŠนํžˆ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ 1๊ธฐ์™€ ๋ฐ”์ด๋“  ์ •๋ถ€๋ฅผ ๊ฑฐ์น˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์–ต์ œํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ž๊ธฐํ™•์‹ ๋„ ์ปค์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์€ ์ฒ˜์Œ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. 1990๋…„๋Œ€์—๋„ ๋น„์Šทํ•œ ํ๋ฆ„์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. WTO ๊ฐ€์ž…์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ํŽธ์ž…๋์„ ๋•Œ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ โ€œ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ์ค‘๊ตญ๋„ ๋ฏผ์ฃผํ™”๋  ๊ฒƒโ€์ด๋ผ ๊ธฐ๋Œ€ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  2000๋…„๋Œ€ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜, ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฌด์—ญ ํ‘์ž๊ฐ€ ์ปค์ง€์ž โ€œ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์†Œ๋น„์— ์˜์กดํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋ชป ๊ฐ„๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์ฃ . 2010๋…„๋Œ€์—๋Š” ๊ณ ๋ นํ™”ยท๋‚ด๋ถ€ ๋ถˆ๊ท ํ˜•์ด ์ง€์ ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ž๋ฆฝ ์‹คํŒจ์™€ ์ง€๋ฐฉ์ •๋ถ€ ๋ถ€์ฑ„๊ฐ€ ๋˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋ถ•๊ดด์˜ ์‹œ๋‚˜๋ฆฌ์˜ค๋กœ ์–ธ๊ธ‰๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋งค๋ฒˆ ์˜ˆ์ธก์€ ํ‹€๋ ธ๊ณ , ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ณ„์† ์„ฑ์žฅํ•ด ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

โš™๏ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” โ€˜์†๋„โ€™๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ โ€˜๊ทœ๋ชจโ€™๋‹ค

์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์„ฑ์žฅ์€ ์–ธ์ œ๋‚˜ ์˜๋ฌธ๊ณผ ๋…ผ๋ž€ ์†์—์„œ ์ง„ํ–‰๋์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€˜์‚ฌํšŒ์ฃผ์˜ ์‹œ์žฅ๊ฒฝ์ œโ€™๋ผ๋Š” ์ œ๋„์  ํŠน์ˆ˜์„ฑ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋„์ž…์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜์กด, ํ†ต๊ณ„ ์™œ๊ณก ๋…ผ๋ž€ ๋“ฑ ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ๋น„ํŒ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ โ€”์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ œ์กฐ์—… ๊ตญ๊ฐ€, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ˆ˜์ถœ๊ตญ, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ํ•ด๊ตฐ ๋ณด์œ ๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” โ€˜๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ดˆ์ฒด๋ ฅโ€™์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ž ์‹œ ์ฃผ์ถคํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„, ์ด ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์€ ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์ง€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋”์šฑ์ด ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ํ™”์›จ์ด, SMIC, BYD ๋“ฑ ์ฃผ์š” ๊ธฐ์—…๋“ค์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๋ด‰์‡„ ์†์—์„œ๋„ ์ž์ฒด ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ๊ฐ€์†ํ™”ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด, ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ, ์ธ๊ณต์ง€๋Šฅ, ์–‘์ž ์ปดํ“จํŒ…, ํ•ด์–‘ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ ๋“ฑ ์ „๋žต์  ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ์˜ ์ถ”๊ฒฉ ์†๋„๋Š” ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ๋นจ๋ผ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ . ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ„๊ณผํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‰ฌ์šด ๊ฑด ๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด โ€˜์งˆ์  ๋„์•ฝโ€™๊ณผ โ€˜์–‘์  ์ถ•์ โ€™์ด ๋งž๋ฌผ๋ฆฐ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋ณ€ํ™”์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ๊ธฐ์ง€ํ‘œ๋งŒ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑด, ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ „์—์„œ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์„ ์žƒ๋Š” ์ง€๋ฆ„๊ธธ์ผ์ง€๋„ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿงญ ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€?

์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋‹น์žฅ ๋‚ด์ผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์ถ”์›”ํ•˜์ง„ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ โ€˜์ ˆ๋Œ€ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์žก์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹คโ€™๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‹จ์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ์ˆœ๊ฐ„, ์ „๋žต์  ์‚ฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ๋ฉˆ์ถ”๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ์ค‘ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์€ ์ด์ œ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ GDP ๋น„๊ต๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง, ๊ธฐ์ˆ , ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ๋ ฅ, ์™ธ๊ต์  ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์ด๋™์›ํ•œ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์  ๊ทœ๋ชจ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ(scale competition)์˜ ์–‘์ƒ์„ ๋ ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด, ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๋ƒ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ˆ„๊ฐ€ ๋” ํฌ๊ฒŒ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐ๋ผ ์žˆ๋А๋ƒ๊ฐ€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‹œ๋Œ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ด ์ง€์ ์—์„œ, ์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณผ ๊ธ€์€ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•œ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋˜์ง‘๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.โ€œ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ง„์งœ ์ง๋ฉดํ•œ ๋„์ „์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋ถ•๊ดด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ๊ทธ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์—์„œ ์˜ค๋Š” ์••๋„์  ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์ด๋‹ค.โ€ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ์— ๋งž์„œ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด, ์ด์ œ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ „๋žต ์žฌ์„ค์ •์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์‹œ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค! ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ’ธ

 

๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿซ ์ €์ž๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ธ๊ฐ€์š”?

 

์ปคํŠธ M. ์บ ๋ฒจ (Kurt M. Campbell)

์ปคํŠธ ์บ ๋ฒจ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ธ๋„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์ „๋žต์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹คํ–‰ํ•œ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์™ธ๊ต ์ „๋žต๊ฐ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ฐ”์ด๋“  ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€์—์„œ ๊ตญ๋ฌด๋ถ€ ๋ถ€์žฅ๊ด€(2024~2025)๊ณผ ๋ฐฑ์•…๊ด€ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€์•ˆ๋ณดํšŒ์˜(NSC)์˜ ์ธ๋„-ํƒœํ‰์–‘ ์กฐ์ •๊ด€์„ ์—ญ์ž„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, AUKUS, ์ฟผ๋“œ, ๋ฏธยท์ผยทํ•œ 3๊ตญ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ ๋“ฑ์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋™๋งน ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ๋ฅผ ์žฌ์ •๋น„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์—ญํ• ์„ ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.

์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€ ์‹œ์ ˆ์—๋Š” ๊ตญ๋ฌด๋ถ€ ๋™์•„์‹œ์•„ยทํƒœํ‰์–‘ ๋‹ด๋‹น ์ฐจ๊ด€๋ณด(2009~2013)๋กœ, โ€œ์•„์‹œ์•„๋กœ์˜ ํ”ผ๋ฒ—(Pivot to Asia)โ€ ์ „๋žต์„ ๊ตฌ์ƒํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹คํ–‰ํ•œ ์ฃผ๋„์ ์ธ ์ธ๋ฌผ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„์—์„œ๋Š” ๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์ „๋žต ์ปจ์„คํŒ… ๊ธฐ์—… The Asia Group์˜ ๊ณต๋™ ์ฐฝ๋ฆฝ์ž์ด์ž ํšŒ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์™ธ์ „๋žต๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์—…์˜ ์•„์‹œ์•„ ์ง„์ถœ์„ ์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•˜๋Š” ํ”Œ๋žซํผ์„ ์šด์˜ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.

์˜ฅ์Šคํผ๋“œ๋Œ€์—์„œ ๊ตญ์ œ๊ด€๊ณ„ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ ํ•™์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์€ ๊ทธ๋Š” ํ•™์ž๋กœ์„œ๋„ ํ™œ๋™ํ–ˆ๊ณ , ํ•ด๊ตฐ ์˜ˆ๋น„์—ญ ์žฅ๊ต๋กœ์„œ ์•ˆ๋ณด ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ฒฝํ—˜๋„ ๊ฐ–์ถ”๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ €์„œ The Pivot์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์•„์‹œ์•„ ์ „๋žต์„ ์ฒด๊ณ„ํ™”ํ•œ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ์ ์ธ ์ฐธ๊ณ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ผฝํ˜€์š”.

 

๋Ÿฌ์‹œ ๋„์‹œ (Rush Doshi)

๋Ÿฌ์‹œ ๋„์‹œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์ „๋žต์„ ๋ถ„์„ํ•˜๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์‘ ์ „๋žต์„ ์„ค๊ณ„ํ•œ ์ฐจ์„ธ๋Œ€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์˜ˆ์š”. ๋ฐ”์ด๋“  ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€์—์„œ ๋ฐฑ์•…๊ด€ NSC ์ตœ์ดˆ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ ์ „๋‹ด ๋””๋ ‰ํ„ฐ์ด์ž ์ค‘๊ตญยท๋Œ€๋งŒ ๋‹ด๋‹น ๋ถ€์„ ์ž„๊ตญ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ผํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์ค‘ ์ „๋žต ์ดˆ์•ˆ ์ž‘์„ฑ, AUKUS ์ถœ๋ฒ” ํ˜‘์ƒ, ๋ฏธยท์ค‘ ์ •์ƒํšŒ๋‹ด ์‹ค๋ฌด ์ด๊ด„ ๋“ฑ์„ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.

ํ˜„์žฌ๋Š” ์กฐ์ง€ํƒ€์šด๋Œ€ ์•ˆ๋ณดํ•™ ๊ต์ˆ˜์ด์ž ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์™ธ๊ตํ˜‘ํšŒ ์„ ์ž„์—ฐ๊ตฌ์›์œผ๋กœ ํ™œ๋™ ์ค‘์ด๋ฉฐ, ๋ธŒ๋ฃจํ‚น์Šค, CNAS, ์˜ˆ์ผ๋Œ€ ๋“ฑ์—์„œ ํ•™๋ฌธ๊ณผ ์ •์ฑ…์„ ์ž‡๋Š” ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€์†ํ•ด์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ์˜ ๋Œ€ํ‘œ ์ €์„œ The Long Game์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฃผ๋„์˜ ๊ตญ์ œ์งˆ์„œ๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์žฅ๊ธฐ ์ „๋žต์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•ด์™”๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์„ํ•œ ์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ, ํŒŒ์ด๋‚ธ์…œํƒ€์ž„์Šค๊ฐ€ ์˜ฌํ•ด์˜ ์ฑ…์œผ๋กœ ์„ ์ •ํ•œ ๋ฐ” ์žˆ์–ด์š”.

ํ”„๋ฆฐ์Šคํ„ด๋Œ€์™€ ํ•˜๋ฒ„๋“œ๋Œ€์—์„œ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ํ•™์‚ฌ์™€ ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ ํ•™์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•˜๊ณ , ์ค‘๊ตญ์–ด์™€ ํžŒ๋””์–ด์— ๋Šฅํ†ตํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์œˆ๋‚œ์„ฑ์—์„œ ํ’€๋ธŒ๋ผ์ดํŠธ ํŽ ๋กœ์šฐ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ํ–‰ํ•˜๋Š” ๋“ฑ ํ˜„์žฅ ๊ฒฝํ—˜๋„ ํ’๋ถ€ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

โœ… ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 3์ค„ ์š”์•ฝ์€?

 

1๏ธโƒฃ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด์—์„œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋‘”ํ™”์™€ ์ธ๊ตฌ ์œ„๊ธฐ ๋“ฑ์„ ๊ทผ๊ฑฐ๋กœ โ€˜์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์ถ”์›”ํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒโ€™์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์ด ํผ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ €์ž๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์ธ์‹์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ „๋žต์  ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์„ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•œ๋‹ค.

2๏ธโƒฃ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์ œ์กฐ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ˜์‹  ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰, ํ•ด๊ตฐยท๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ์ „๋ ฅ ๋“ฑ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ์ง€ํ‘œ์—์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์••๋„ํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ด ๊ฐ™์€ โ€˜๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์šฐ์œ„(scale advantage)โ€™๋Š” ๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์— ํ”๋“ค๋ฆฌ์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๊ฐ•์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž‘์šฉํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค.

3๏ธโƒฃ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ๋‹จ๋… ํŒจ๊ถŒ์„ ๊ฟˆ๊พธ๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค, ๋™๋งน ๋ฐ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค๊ณผ์˜ ํ†ตํ•ฉ๋œ โ€˜์—ฐํ•ฉ ๊ทœ๋ชจ์˜ ์ „๋žต(allied scale)โ€™์„ ํ†ตํ•ด ๊ตฐ์‚ฌยท๊ฒฝ์ œยท๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ฒฐ์ง‘ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋„์ „์— ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ€์‘ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿค” ๋ญ˜ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์€ ๊ฑด๋ฐ?

 

โš–๏ธ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ๋„ ํ—›๋ฐœ์งˆ์ค‘์ด๋‹ค?!

์ด ๊ธ€์€ ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์—์„œ ์ถœ๋ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. โ€œ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹คโ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ . ํ•œ๋•Œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์ถ”์›”ํ•  ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๋Š” ํŒจ๋‹‰์— ๊ฐ€๊นŒ์šด ๋น„๊ด€๋ก ์ด ์ง€๋ฐฐ์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋‘”ํ™”, ์ฒญ๋…„ ์‹ค์—…, ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ฐ์†Œ, ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์œ„๊ธฐ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด์—์„  โ€œ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋๋‚ฌ๋‹คโ€๋Š” ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์ด ๋ฒˆ์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ €์ž๋“ค์€ ์ด ๋‚™๊ด€์ด์•ผ๋ง๋กœ ์ง„์งœ ์œ„ํ—˜์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ง€๊ธˆ๊ป ๋งž์„œ์˜จ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ํฌ๊ณ , ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ณ , ๋” ์ฒด๊ณ„์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ทธ๋ ‡๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ๋ถ€์ •ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ตฌ์กฐ๋‚˜ ๋ถ€์ฑ„ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋ช… ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜์ฃ . ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ„๊ณผํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฑด, โ€œ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋‘”ํ™”๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•ด์„œ ์ „๋žต์  ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์ด ์•ฝํ•ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๋Š” ์ โ€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ์†Œ๋ จ, ์ผ๋ณธ, ๋…์ผ๊ณผ๋Š” ์ „ํ˜€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ โ€˜์Šค์ผ€์ผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ „๋žต๊ตญ๊ฐ€โ€™๋กœ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ โ€˜์–‘๊ณผ ์งˆโ€™ ๋ชจ๋‘์—์„œ ์—ด์„ธ๋ฅผ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๊ฐ€ ๋“ฑ์žฅํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ €์ž๋“ค์˜ ์ง„๋‹จ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ—๏ธ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ง„์งœ ํž˜์€ โ€˜๊ทœ๋ชจโ€™์— ์žˆ๋‹ค

์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋„, ์ด๋…๋„ ์•„๋‹Œ ๊ทœ๋ชจ(scale)์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ œ์กฐ์—…, ์ธ๊ณต์ง€๋Šฅ, ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ, ํ•ด์šด, ์—๋„ˆ์ง€, ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ, ๋ฐฐํ„ฐ๋ฆฌ, ํƒœ์–‘๊ด‘, ํฌ๊ท€๊ด‘๋ฌผ ๋“ฑ ์ „๋žต์  ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฌผ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋” ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์€ ํŠนํ—ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ฑ๋กํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋‹จ ๋ช‡ ๋…„ ์•ˆ์— ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์˜ ๊ตฐํ•จ์„ ๊ฑด์กฐํ•  ๊ณ„ํš๊นŒ์ง€ ์„ธ์›Œ๋‘๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋” ์ด์ƒ ํ˜ผ์ž์„œ ์ด ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์— ๋งž์„ค ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๋‚œ ์„ธ๊ธฐ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ณผ์˜ ๋™๋งน์œผ๋กœ ์†Œ๋ จ์„ ๋ˆŒ๋ €๊ณ , ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์˜ ์ ˆ๋ฐ˜์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๋Š” ์ดˆ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. GDP ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๊ตฌ๋งค๋ ฅ ๊ธฐ์ค€์œผ๋กœ๋„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์•ž์„œ ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ œ์กฐ์—… ๋น„์ค‘์€ ์ ์  ์ค„์–ด๋“œ๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด, ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ œ์กฐ์—… ๊ฐ•๊ตญ์œผ๋กœ์„œ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ์„ ์žฅ์•…ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ฃ . ์ฆ‰, ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์˜๊ตญ์„ ์ถ”์›”ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ, ์ด์ œ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์ถ”์›”ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ์กฐ๊ฑด์ด ๋งˆ๋ จ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐ŸŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํ˜ผ์ž์„œ๋Š” ์ด๊ธธ ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋‹ค

์ด ๊ธ€์—์„œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ „๋žต์  ์ œ์•ˆ์€ ๋ช…ํ™•ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ํ˜ผ์ž ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ์•ˆ ๋˜๊ณ , ์—ฐํ•ฉ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฏธ๊ตญ, ์œ ๋Ÿฝ, ์ผ๋ณธ, ํ•œ๊ตญ, ์ธ๋„, ํ˜ธ์ฃผ, ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค, ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ” ๋“ฑ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋™๋งน๊ณผ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œยท๊ธฐ์ˆ ยท๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์—์„œ ์ž์›์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์‚ฐ์—… ์ •์ฑ…์„ ์กฐ์œจํ•œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์Šค์ผ€์ผ์„ ์ƒ์‡„ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์œ ์ผํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ โ€˜ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์žˆ์žโ€™๋Š” ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ๊ณต๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ณต๋™ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ, ์‹œ์žฅ ๊ณต๋™ ๋ฐฉ์–ด ๋“ฑ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์—ฐ๊ณ„๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .

์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ ‘๊ทผ์€ ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ๋ƒ‰์ „ ์‹œ๋Œ€ ๋™๋งน ๊ตฌ์กฐ์™€๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ์ „์—๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๋ฌด๊ธฐ์™€ ์ „๋žต์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ  ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์€ ๋ฐฉ์–ด์„ ์„ ๋งก๋Š” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์˜€๋‹ค๋ฉด, ์ด์ œ๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๊ณผ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์ด ์ƒํ˜ธ ๊ณต๊ธ‰๋ง, ๊ธฐ์ˆ , ์ „๋žต ์ž์‚ฐ์„ ์„œ๋กœ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋Š” โ€˜๊ณต๋™ ์ „๋ ฅ ๊ตฌ์กฐโ€™๋กœ ์ง„ํ™”ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ฃผ์žฅ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ฆ‰, โ€œ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜์˜ ๋ณ‘๊ธฐ๊ณ (arsenal of democracy)โ€๋ฅผ ๋„˜์–ด, โ€œ๋ฏผ์ฃผ์ฃผ์˜๋“ค์˜ ๋ณ‘๊ธฐ๋ง(arsenal of democracies)โ€์„ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•ด์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿง  ๋™๋งน์€ ์˜ต์…˜์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์ „๋žต์˜ ์ „์ œ๋‹ค

์ €์ž๋“ค์€ ์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด์—์„œ ํ™•์‚ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” โ€˜๋™๋งน ํšŒ์˜๋ก โ€™์„ ๊ฐ•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋น„ํŒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ์ „ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์€ ๋‚˜ํ† ์™€์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ”๋“ค๊ณ , ์•„์‹œ์•„ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์—๊ฒŒ โ€˜์ž๊ธฐ ๋ฐฉ์–ดโ€™๋ฅผ ์š”๊ตฌํ–ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด ํ•ต๋ฌด์žฅ์„ ์•”๋ฌต์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ—ˆ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋˜์ง€๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ์ฃ . ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ โ€˜๊ณ ๋ฆฝ์ฃผ์˜์  ๋ณธ๋Šฅโ€™์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ๊ฐ€์ง„ ์œ ์ผํ•œ ์ „๋žต์  ์ด์ ์„ ์Šค์Šค๋กœ ์•ฝํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ์„ ํƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์ด ๊ธ€์˜ ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ์•ฝ์ ์€ ๋™๋งน์ด ์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ๊ฐ•์ ์€ ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„์— ๊ฑธ์ณ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ ๋„คํŠธ์›Œํฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๋™๋งน๋„ ๊ทธ๋ƒฅ ์กด์žฌํ•œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด๋Š” ๊ฑด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณต๋™ ์กฐ๋‹ฌ, ๋ฌด๊ธฐ ๊ณต๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๊ทœ์ œ์˜ ํ‘œ์ค€ํ™”, ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๊ณต์œ , ์‚ฐ์—… ๋ณด์กฐ๊ธˆ ์—ฐ๊ณ„, ์•ˆ๋ณด ํ˜‘์ • ํ™•๋Œ€ ๋“ฑ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ํ†ตํ•ฉ์ด ์—†์ด๋Š” ๋™๋งน๋„ ํ—ˆ์šธ์— ๋ถˆ๊ณผํ•˜๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์ฃ .

 

โ—์ง€๊ธˆ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์ •์‹  ๋˜‘๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ฐจ๋ฆฌ์ž!

์ด ๊ธ€์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ โ€˜์ž๊ธฐ ์ธ์‹โ€™ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ์ •๋ฉด์œผ๋กœ ๋น„ํŒํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋•Œ๋กœ๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ณตํฌ์— ๋น ์ง€๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ , ๋˜ ์–ด๋А ์ˆœ๊ฐ„์—๋Š” ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ๊นŽ์•„๋‚ด๋ฆฌ๋Š” ํƒœ๋„๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์„œ์ฃ . ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ทธ์ € ๋ถˆ์•ˆํ•œ ๋…์žฌ๊ตญ๋„, ๊ณง ๋ฌด๋„ˆ์งˆ โ€˜์ข…์ดํ˜ธ๋ž‘์ดโ€™๋„ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์•ฝ์ ์ด ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋™์‹œ์— ์••๋„์ ์ธ ์ž์›๊ณผ ์ „๋žต์  ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋ผ๋Š” ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ๋ณ€ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•œ ๊ฑด ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฐ”๋ผ๋ณด์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ, ์ฆ‰ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ์• ์จ ์™œ๊ณกํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฌด์‹œํ•˜๋Š” ํƒœ๋„์ผ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค!

 

๐Ÿ“– ์ฝ์€ ํ‹ฐ๋Š” ๋‚ด๋ณด์ž!

์•„์˜ˆ ์•ˆ ์ฝ๊ธฐ๋Š” ์• ๋งคํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ ์š”? ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ค‘์š” ๋ถ€๋ถ„์„ ๋ฐœ์ทŒํ•ด ๋“œ๋ฆด๊ฒŒ์š”! ๐Ÿ˜†

 

๐Ÿ“ˆ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋А๋ ค์กŒ์ง€๋งŒ, โ€˜์œ„ํ˜‘โ€™์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋น ๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค

 

โ€œA new consensus took hold: that an aging, slowing, and increasingly less nimble China would not overtake an ascendant United States. Washington shifted from pessimism to overconfidence. Yet just as past bouts of defeatism were misguided, so is todayโ€™s triumphalism, which risks dangerously underestimating both the latent and actual power of the only competitor in a century whose GDP has surpassed 70 percent of that of the United States. On critical metrics, China has already outmatched the United States. Economically, it boasts twice the manufacturing capacity. Technologically, it dominates everything from electric vehicles to fourth-generation nuclear reactors and now produces more active patents and top-cited scientific publications annually. Militarily, it features the worldโ€™s largest navy, bolstered by shipbuilding capacity 200 times as large as that of the United States; vastly greater missile stocks; and the worldโ€™s most advanced hypersonic capabilitiesโ€”all results of the fastest military modernization in history. Even if Chinaโ€™s growth slows and its system falters, it will remain formidable strategically.โ€


 

์ตœ๊ทผ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด์—์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ธ์‹์ด ์ž๋ฆฌ์žก์•˜๋‹ค. ๊ณ ๋ นํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ๋‘”ํ•ด์ง„ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ธ‰๋ถ€์ƒ ์ค‘์ธ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ์žก์ง€ ๋ชปํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ฐ๋ผ ์›Œ์‹ฑํ„ด์€ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ๋น„๊ด€๋ก ์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜ ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ๊ณผ์‹ ์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ”๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์˜ ํŒจ๋ฐฐ์ฃผ์˜๊ฐ€ ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ํŒ๋‹จ์ด์—ˆ๋“ฏ, ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ์Šน๋ฆฌ์ฃผ์˜ ๋˜ํ•œ ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•œ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ง€๋‚œ 100๋…„๊ฐ„ ์œ ์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ GDP์˜ 70% ์ด์ƒ์„ ๋‹ฌ์„ฑํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž์ด๋ฉฐ, ๊ทธ ์ž ์žฌ์ ยท์‹ค์งˆ์  ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ฃผ์š” ์ง€ํ‘œ๋งŒ ๋ด๋„ ์ด๋ฏธ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์„ ์•ž์งˆ๋ €๋‹ค. ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ œ์กฐ์—… ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์ด ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋‘ ๋ฐฐ์— ๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ณ , ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์ „๊ธฐ์ฐจ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 4์„ธ๋Œ€ ์›์ž๋กœ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋“  ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ ์ฃผ๋„๊ถŒ์„ ์ฅ๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ํ•ด๋งˆ๋‹ค ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ํŠนํ—ˆ์™€ ํ”ผ์ธ์šฉ ๊ณผํ•™ ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์ƒ์‚ฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๋Œ€ ํ•ด๊ตฐ์„ ๋ณด์œ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ, ์กฐ์„  ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ 200๋ฐฐ, ๋ฏธ์‚ฌ์ผ ๋ณด์œ ๋Ÿ‰์€ ํ›จ์”ฌ ํฌ๊ณ , ๊ทน์ดˆ์Œ์† ๋ฌด๊ธฐ์—์„œ๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ  ์ˆ˜์ค€์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋Š” ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋น ๋ฅธ ๊ตฐ์‚ฌ ํ˜„๋Œ€ํ™”์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์ด๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์„ธ๊ฐ€ ๋‘”ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์ฒด์ œ๊ฐ€ ํ”๋“ค๋ฆฐ๋‹ค ํ•ด๋„, ์ „๋žต์  ์œ„ํ˜‘์œผ๋กœ์„œ์˜ ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋ง‰๊ฐ•ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ์ƒ๋Œ€์ธ ์ค‘๊ตญ

 

โ€œThere is no question that China faces significant problems: an aging society, towering debt, stagnating productivity, growing risks in its housing market, high youth unemployment, crackdowns on the private sector. But even grave macroeconomic challenges do not neatly translate to strategic disadvantage. Two facts can be true at the same time: that China is slowing economically and that it is becoming more formidable strategically. And Beijing might well address economic challenges with a return to sound decision-making in the years ahead. Emphasizing Chinaโ€™s weaknesses risks understating its scale and capacity on the metrics and time frame most relevant for great-power competition.โ€


 

์ค‘๊ตญ์ด ์ค‘๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์— ์ง๋ฉดํ•ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์—๋Š” ์ด๊ฒฌ์ด ์—†๋‹ค. ๊ณ ๋ นํ™” ์‚ฌํšŒ, ๋ง‰๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถ€์ฑ„, ์ •์ฒด๋œ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ, ์œ„ํ—˜์ด ์ปค์ง€๋Š” ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ, ๋†’์€ ์ฒญ๋…„ ์‹ค์—…๋ฅ , ๋ฏผ๊ฐ„ ๋ถ€๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ทœ์ œ ๊ฐ•ํ™” ๋“ฑ์€ ๋ถ„๋ช…ํ•œ ํ˜„์‹ค์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฑฐ์‹œ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋„์ „์ด ๊ณง๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ „๋žต์  ์•ฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ด์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋‹ค์Œ ๋‘ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ๋™์‹œ์— ์„ฑ๋ฆฝํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ์„ฑ์žฅ์€ ๋‘”ํ™”๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ „๋žต์  ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์€ ๋” ์ปค์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ–ฅํ›„ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๊ฐ„ ๋ฒ ์ด์ง•์ด ๊ฑด์ „ํ•œ ์ •์ฑ… ๊ฒฐ์ •์œผ๋กœ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์„ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ๋„ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์•ฝ์ ๋งŒ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๋Š” ์ ‘๊ทผ์€, ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ ๊ฐ„ ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์—์„œ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ์ถ•๊ณผ ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์˜ ๊ทœ๋ชจ๋ฅผ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

 

โ˜„๏ธ ์ง„์งœ ์œ„ํ—˜์€ โ€˜๋ฏธ๊ตญ์‡ ํ‡ด๋ก โ€™์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, โ€˜์ž๋งŒ์‹ฌโ€™์ด๋‹ค

 

โ€œSome analysts warn that American declinism is itself a risk, which could become โ€˜a self-fulfilling prophecy.โ€™ There is wisdom in that admonition; the rise and fall of great powers often begins with flawed self-diagnosis. But it is also the case, as the political scientist Samuel Huntington argued in these pages before the fall of the Soviet Union, that fretting about decline can just as often drive renewal. The greatest risk is not declinism; it is complacency, leading to a lack of strategic intention and a failure to catalyze collective action to rise to the China challenge. If anything, the United Statesโ€”particularly in the era of President Donald Trumpโ€”risks overestimating unilateral power and underestimating Chinaโ€™s ability to counter it.โ€

 

์ผ๋ถ€ ๋ถ„์„๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ๋‚ด์—์„œ ํผ์ง€๋Š” โ€˜์‡ ํ‡ด๋ก โ€™ ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์š”์†Œ๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ณผ๋„ํ•œ ๋น„๊ด€์ด ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ์ž๊ธฐ์ถฉ์กฑ์  ์˜ˆ์–ธ์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒฝ๊ณ ์—๋Š” ์ผ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ•๋Œ€๊ตญ์˜ ํฅ๋ง์€ ์ข…์ข… ์ž˜๋ชป๋œ ์ž๊ธฐ ์ง„๋‹จ์—์„œ ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ •์น˜ํ•™์ž ์ƒˆ๋ฎค์–ผ ํ—ŒํŒ…ํ„ด์ด ์†Œ๋ จ ๋ถ•๊ดด ์ „ ์ด ์ง€๋ฉด์— ์ผ๋“ฏ์ด, ์‡ ํ‡ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ด ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ํ˜์‹ ๊ณผ ์žฌ๋„์•ฝ์„ ์ด‰์ง„ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ตญ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์€ ์‡ ํ‡ด๋ก  ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, โ€˜์ž๋งŒโ€™์ด๋‹ค. ์ž๋งŒ์€ ์ „๋žต์  ์˜์ง€์˜ ๊ฒฐ์—ฌ์™€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๋„์ „์— ๋งž์„œ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ง‘๋‹จ์  ํ–‰๋™์˜ ์‹คํŒจ๋ฅผ ๋‚ณ๋Š”๋‹ค. ์˜คํžˆ๋ ค ํ˜„์žฌ ๋ฏธ๊ตญโ€”ํŠนํžˆ ๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญโ€”์€ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์ผ๋ฐฉ์  ํž˜์„ ๊ณผ๋Œ€ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ , ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์‘ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๊ณผ์†Œํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์—์„œ ๋” ์œ„ํ—˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค.

 

๐ŸŒŽ ๋™๋งน์€ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ์ž์‚ฐ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ, ์ „๋žต์˜ ์ „์ œ์ด๋‹ค

 

โ€œThe starting point for the United States can be long-standing bilateral alliances (such as those with Japan and South Korea) and multilateral alliances (such as NATO), along with newer partnerships (such as the AUKUS defense technology agreement with Australia and the United Kingdom) and less institutionalized groupings (such as the Quad, which also includes Australia, India, and Japan). But rather than simply celebrating these frameworks or expanding their membership, the task ahead is to deepen their functionโ€”to make them foundations for capacity-centric statecraft across multiple domains. These relationships have too often operated on the assumption that the United States provides security while others contribute political support or, at best, niche capabilities. It has been largely security-centric, tooโ€”focused on deterrence, access, and reassuranceโ€”while leaving economic coordination, industrial integration, and technological collaboration as emerging but still secondary concerns. The traditional model was simply not designed to compete with a systemic rival on the order of China. It is dangerously inadequate to the demands of the moment.โ€

 

๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ์ถœ๋ฐœ์ ์€ ์ผ๋ณธ๊ณผ ํ•œ๊ตญ ๊ฐ™์€ ์˜ค๋žœ ์–‘์ž ๋™๋งน, NATO ๊ฐ™์€ ๋‹ค์ž ๋™๋งน, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  AUKUS(๋ฏธ๊ตญยท์˜๊ตญยทํ˜ธ์ฃผ ๊ฐ„ ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ˜‘์ •) ๊ฐ™์€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ์‹ญ, ์ฟผ๋“œ(๋ฏธ๊ตญยท์ผ๋ณธยทํ˜ธ์ฃผยท์ธ๋„) ๊ฐ™์€ ๋น„๊ณต์‹ ํ˜‘์˜์ฒด๊นŒ์ง€ ํฌํ•จํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๊ด€๊ณ„๋“ค์„ ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ์ฐฌ์–‘ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ํšŒ์›๊ตญ์„ ๋Š˜๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฐ ๊ทธ์ณ์„œ๋Š” ์•ˆ ๋œ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ ์ผ์€ ์ด ๋™๋งน๋“ค์˜ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ์„ ์‹ฌํ™”์‹œํ‚ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹คโ€”์ฆ‰, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ ์‹ค์งˆ์  ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ „๋žต ์šด์šฉ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ์ „ํ™˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด๋‹ค. ํ˜„์žฌ๊นŒ์ง€ ์ด๋“ค ๊ด€๊ณ„๋Š” ์ฃผ๋กœ โ€˜๋ฏธ๊ตญ์ด ์•ˆ๋ณด๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•˜๊ณ , ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ ์ •์น˜์  ์ง€์ง€๋‚˜ ํ‹ˆ์ƒˆ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹คโ€™๋Š” ์ „์ œ ํ•˜์— ์šด์˜๋˜์–ด ์™”๋‹ค. ๋‚ด์šฉ ๋ฉด์—์„œ๋„ ์–ต์ง€, ์ ‘๊ทผ, ์•ˆ์‹ฌ์— ์ง‘์ค‘๋œ โ€˜์•ˆ๋ณด ์ค‘์‹ฌ ๋ชจ๋ธโ€™์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ฐ˜๋ฉด ๊ฒฝ์ œ ํ˜‘๋ ฅ, ์‚ฐ์—… ํ†ตํ•ฉ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ณต๋™ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋ถ€์ฐจ์ ์ธ ์š”์†Œ์— ๋จธ๋ฌผ๋ €๋‹ค. ์ด์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ „ํ†ต์  ๋™๋งน ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ฒด๊ณ„์  ๊ฒฝ์Ÿ์ž๋ฅผ ์ƒ๋Œ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ์—” ๊ตฌ์กฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€์กฑํ•˜๋ฉฐ, ์ง€๊ธˆ์˜ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๊ฐ๋‹นํ•˜๊ธฐ์—” ์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ถˆ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•˜๋‹ค.

 

๐Ÿคจ ์ด๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฏฟ์–ด๋„ ๋ ๊นŒ?

 

1๏ธโƒฃ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์šฐ์œ„, ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋„๋กœ ์ง€์† ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ• ๊นŒ?

์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๋ง‰๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ฒจ๋‹จ ์‚ฐ์—…์—์„œ ๋‘๊ฐ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ด ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฐฉ์‹์ด ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ํ˜์‹  ์—ญ๋Ÿ‰์„ ๋ณด์žฅํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋Š” ๋ถˆํ™•์‹คํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋„์™€ ์‹œ์žฅ ์ž์œจ์„ฑ์˜ ๊ท ํ˜•์€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์œ ์ง€๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?

 

2๏ธโƒฃ โ€˜๊ณต๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐโ€™ ๊ตฌ์ƒ, ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ฃผ๊ถŒ ์•ž์—์„œ ์‹คํ˜„ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ๊ฐ€?

๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค๊ณผ ๋ฐฉ์œ„์‚ฐ์—… ๊ณต๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐ ์ฒด๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ตฌ์ถ•ํ•˜๊ธธ ์›ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ํ•ต์‹ฌ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ๊ณต์œ ๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ตญ ์•ˆ๋ณด์™€ ์‚ฐ์—… ์ฃผ๊ถŒ์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆฐ ๋ฏผ๊ฐํ•œ ์‚ฌ์•ˆ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ผ๋ณธ, ์œ ๋Ÿฝ, ํ•œ๊ตญ์€ ์ •๋ง ์ค€๋น„๊ฐ€ ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?

 

3๏ธโƒฃ โ€˜๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์šฐ์„ ์ฃผ์˜โ€™ ์†์—์„œ๋„ ๋™๋งน์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ์‹ ๋ขฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ?

์ตœ๊ทผ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋Œ€์™ธ ์ •์ฑ…์€ ์ผ๊ด€์„ฑ๋ณด๋‹ค ์ž๊ตญ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์˜ ์ด์ต์„ ์•ž์„ธ์›Œ ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ฃผ๋„์˜ ์—ฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๋ฏฟ๊ณ  ๋”ฐ๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?

 

๐Ÿ˜Š ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ฝ์œผ๋ฉด ์ข‹๊ฒ ๋‹ค!

 

 

Why Trump wants allies to take on China in a trade war (CNN, Apr 12, 2025)

๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์ด ์ค‘๊ตญ๊ณผ์˜ ๋ฌด์—ญ์ „์Ÿ์„ ์Šน๋ฆฌ๋กœ ์ด๋Œ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค์˜ ๋„์›€์ด ์ ˆ์‹คํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐํžˆ๊ณ  ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ, ์ •์ž‘ ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์ทจ์ž„ ์ดํ›„ ํ•ด์˜จ ํ–‰๋™์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค๊ณผ์˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฌด๋„ˆ๋œจ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์—ฐํ•ฉ์„ ๋น„ํ•˜ํ•˜๊ณ , ์บ๋‚˜๋‹ค ๋ณ‘ํ•ฉ๊นŒ์ง€ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๋ฉ•์‹œ์ฝ”์— ๊ณ ์œจ ๊ด€์„ธ๋ฅผ ๋ถ€๊ณผํ•œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๋Š”, ์—ญ์„ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ผ๋ณธยทํ•œ๊ตญยท์ธ๋„ยท๋ฒ ํŠธ๋‚จ ๋“ฑ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ํฌ์œ„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฌด์—ญ ํ˜‘์ƒ ๊ตฌ์ƒ์„ ์ถ”์ง„ ์ค‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์žฌ๋ฌด์žฅ๊ด€ ์Šค์ฝง ๋ฒ ์„ผํŠธ๋Š” โ€œ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ˜‘์ƒ ํ…Œ์ด๋ธ”์— ์˜ค๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์„ ์žฌ์กฐ์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“œ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ถ๊ทน์  ๋ชฉํ‘œโ€๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์กฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”, ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„๊ฐ€ โ€˜America Firstโ€™ ๊ธฐ์กฐ ์•„๋ž˜ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ๋‹ค์ž์ฃผ์˜๋ฅผ ํ•ด์ฒดํ•ด์™”๋‹ค๋Š” ์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ง‘๊ถŒ ์ฒซ๋‚  TPP(ํ™˜ํƒœํ‰์–‘๊ฒฝ์ œ๋™๋ฐ˜์žํ˜‘์ •)์—์„œ ํƒˆํ‡ดํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์œ ๋Ÿฝ๊ณผ์˜ ๊ฑฐ๋Œ€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋ธ”๋ก ๋…ผ์˜(TTIP)๋„ ์ค‘๋‹จ์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ง€๊ธˆ์—์„œ์•ผ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ๋“ค์˜ ์—ฐ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ์ •์ž‘ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„์˜ ์ „ํ™”๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์„์ง€์กฐ์ฐจ ํ™•์‹คํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜ค๋ฐ”๋งˆ ํ–‰์ •๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์ž๋ฌธ์œ„์›์žฅ์„ ์ง€๋‚ธ ์ œ์ด์Šจ ํผ๋จผ์€ CNN์— โ€œ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์€ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์–ด๋А ๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋„ ์‹ ๋ขฐํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋‹คโ€๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‹จ์–ธํ–ˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”, ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ํ•œ๊ตญ์„ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ ๋™๋งน๊ตญ์˜ ๊ท€์ถ”๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ๋ชฉ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๐ŸŒ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ

 

Xiโ€™s real test is not Trumpโ€™s trade war (BBC, April 30, 2025)

๋„๋„๋“œ ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ๋Œ€ํ†ต๋ น์˜ ๊ณ ์œจ ๊ด€์„ธ(์ตœ๋Œ€ 145%)์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ๊ณตํฌ ๋Œ€์‹  ์กฐ๋กฑ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. AI๋กœ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด์ง„ โ€˜ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ์กฐ๋กฑ ์˜์ƒโ€™์ด ์œ ํ–‰ํ•˜๊ณ , ์‹œ์ง„ํ•‘ ์ฃผ์„์€ โ€œ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ 70๋…„ ๋„˜๊ฒŒ ์ž๋ ฅ๊ฐฑ์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ „ํ•ด์™”๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ๊ฐ•์กฐํ•˜๋ฉฐ ๊ตด๋ณตํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ž์‹ ๊ฐ์„ ๋“œ๋Ÿฌ๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ๊ฐ•๊ฒฝํ•จ ์ด๋ฉด์—๋Š” ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋‚ด๋ถ€์˜ ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ตฌ์กฐ์  ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋„์‚ฌ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ถ€๋™์‚ฐ ์‹œ์žฅ ๋ถ•๊ดด, ์ฒญ๋…„ ์‹ค์—…, ๋…ธ๋ นํ™”์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅธ ์—ฐ๊ธˆ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ ๋“ฑ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์†Œ๋น„๋Š” ๊ทน๋„๋กœ ์œ„์ถ•๋œ ์ƒํƒœ์ด๋ฉฐ, ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์€ โ€œ์ˆ˜์ถœ ๊ฐ์†Œ๋ฅผ ๋‚ด์ˆ˜๋กœ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•˜๋ ค๋ฉด ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆฐ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ์ง€์ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

์‹œ ์ฃผ์„์€ ์ด๋ฅผ ์œ„๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๊ธฐํšŒ๋กœ ์‚ผ์•„ ์ฒด์งˆ ๊ฐœ์„ ์„ ๊พ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ณ„๊ธฐ๋กœ ์‚ผ๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ค‘๊ตญ์€ ์ด๋ฏธ ๋™๋‚จ์•„, ๋ผํ‹ด์•„๋ฉ”๋ฆฌ์นด, ์•„ํ”„๋ฆฌ์นด ๋“ฑ โ€˜๊ธ€๋กœ๋ฒŒ ์‚ฌ์šฐ์Šคโ€™์™€์˜ ๋ฌด์—ญ ๋‹ค๋ณ€ํ™”์— ์„ฑ๊ณตํ–ˆ๊ณ , ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์‹œ์žฅ๋„ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์ค‘์‹ฌ์—์„œ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ž๊ตญ ์ œํ’ˆ์ด ์—ญ์™ธ ์‹œ์žฅ์— ๋คํ•‘ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ ์œ ์ž…๋  ๊ฒฝ์šฐ, ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ฌด์—ญ ๋งˆ์ฐฐ๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ฐ€ํ”ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋™์‹œ์— ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ ํ˜ธ์ฃผ์™€์˜ ๋ฌด์—ญ ๋ณด๋ณต์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ ์ž์œ ๋ฌด์—ญ ํŒŒํŠธ๋„ˆ๋กœ์„œ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์‹ ๋ขฐ์„ฑ์—๋„ ์˜๋ฌธ์ด ๋”ฐ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹œ์ง„ํ•‘์€ โ€œ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ „์—์„œ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ณด๋‹ค ์˜ค๋ž˜ ๋ฒ„ํ‹ธ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹คโ€๊ณ  ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋ฉฐ ์ž๊ตญ ๋‚ด ๊ฒฝ์ œ ๊ฐœํ˜๊ณผ ์ˆ˜์ถœ ์ „๋žต ์กฐ์ •์— ๋ฐ•์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ค‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ๋ฌด์—ญ ์ „์Ÿ์˜ ์ง„์งœ ์ „์žฅ์€ ์ค‘๊ตญ ๋‚ด๋ถ€๋ผ๋Š” ๋ง, ๊ณผ์–ธ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๐Ÿ—๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

 

์ง€๊ธˆ๊นŒ์ง€ ๋ฏธ์ค‘๊ฒฝ์Ÿ๊ณผ ์ค‘๊ตญ์˜ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋‹ค๋ฃฌ Foreign Affairs 2025 May/Jun ํ˜ธ์˜ Underestimating China ๋ฅผ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๋‹ค์Œํ™” ์˜ˆ๊ณ 

๐ŸŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—†๋Š” ์„ธ๊ณ„, ๊ณผ์—ฐ ์งˆ์„œ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€๋ ๊นŒ?

์ฒจ๋ถ€ ์ด๋ฏธ์ง€

 

๐ŸŒ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—†์ด๋„ ๊ตญ์ œ์งˆ์„œ๋Š” ์œ ์ง€๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„๊นŒ? ์ด์ œ๋Š” โ€˜ํ”Œ๋žœ Bโ€™๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค โš ๏ธ

ํŠธ๋Ÿผํ”„ ์‹œ๋Œ€, ์„ธ๊ณ„๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ ์—†์ด ์งˆ์„œ๋ฅผ ์œ ์ง€ํ•  ์ค€๋น„๋ฅผ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฐ€ ๐Ÿงญ

 

5์›” ๋„ท์งธ์ฃผ ๋ชฉ์š”์ผ ๋ฆฌํฌํŠธ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„์˜ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

 

๋‹ค๊ฐ€์˜ฌ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ๊ฐ€ ๊ถ๊ธˆํ•˜์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”?

์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ตฌ๋…ํ•ด์„œ ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ๋ ˆํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ๋ฐ›์•„๋ณด์„ธ์š”

โœ‰๏ธ

์ด๋ฒˆ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ ์–ด๋– ์…จ๋‚˜์š”?

ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ ๋‹˜์—๊ฒŒ โ˜•๏ธ ์ปคํ”ผ์™€ โœ‰๏ธ ์ชฝ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋‚ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”!

๋Œ“๊ธ€

์˜๊ฒฌ์„ ๋‚จ๊ฒจ์ฃผ์„ธ์š”

ํ™•์ธ
์˜๊ฒฌ์ด ์žˆ์œผ์‹ ๊ฐ€์š”? ์ œ์ผ ๋จผ์ € ๋Œ“๊ธ€์„ ๋‹ฌ์•„๋ณด์„ธ์š” !

๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ ˆํ„ฐ

ยฉ 2025 ํ›‘์–ด๋ณด๋Š” ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์„ธ

Foreign Affairs ๋ฅผ ๋น„๋กฏํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๊ตญ์ œ์ •์น˜ ๋‰ด์Šค๋ฅผ ํ›‘์–ด๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฉ”์ผ๋ฆฌ ๋กœ๊ณ 

๋„์›€๋ง ์ž์ฃผ ๋ฌป๋Š” ์งˆ๋ฌธ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐ๋Šฅ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ œ๋ณด

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